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Model by KSplit
Strikeout projections · Wednesday, October 7, 2026
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Table density
Lineup Status | Pitcher | Opponent | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Tier | Leash | Baseline Ks (Median) | Mean Ks | Mode Ks | Strikeout Line | Main Line Over | Main Line Under | Best Edge Side | Distribution Shape Score | Model P(O) | Model P(U) | Main Line Best Edge (deVig) | Odds +1 | Odds +2 | P(K ≥ +1) | P(K ≥ +2) | P(K ≥ +3) | P(K ≥ +4) | Odds +1 Edge (VIG) | Odds +2 Edge (VIG) | Split Influence Level | Right Tail Mass % | Expected CRPS (x100) | Ceiling Conversion Confidence | Ceiling Profile | Tail Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Confirmed | Tyler Glasnow | ATL | R | Elite | S-M | 7 | 7.02 | 6 | 6.5 | 100 | -122 | OVER | 65 | 54.28% | 45.72% | 6.64% | 190 | 360 | 40.46%, +147 | 24.92%, +301 | 18.64%, +437 | 11.56%, +765 | 5.98% | 3.18% | Slight Damp | 18.64% | 0.14427 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
Confirmed | Tyler Mahle | LAD | R | Low | S | 3 | 3.63 | 3 | 3.5 | -132 | 106 | UNDER | 36 | 48.93% | 51.07% | 5.03% | 168 | 368 | 29.94%, +234 | 8.07%, +1140 | 7.73%, +1194 | 3.33%, +2906 | -7.37% | -13.30% | Max Boost | 16.13% | 2.67296 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
Confirmed | Nick Martinez | NYY | R | Low | S | 2 | 2.46 | 2 | 2.5 | -161 | 128 | UNDER | 35 | 44.64% | 55.36% | 13.81% | 172 | 407 | 23.56%, +324 | 10.01%, +899 | 4.07%, +2357 | 1.38%, +7144 | -13.20% | -9.71% | Neutral | 10.54% | 7.88798 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
Confirmed | Max Fried | TB | L | Low | M | 4 | 4.53 | 4 | 4.5 | -108 | -111 | UNDER | 37 | 47.15% | 52.85% | 2.52% | 186 | 400 | 30.23%, +231 | 8.72%, +1047 | 9.10%, +999 | 4.33%, +2211 | -4.74% | -11.29% | Neutral | 17.43% | 1.12685 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
Confirmed | Walker Buehler | MIL | R | Low | S | 3 | 2.69 | 2 | 2.5 | -135 | 118 | UNDER | 43 | 50.31% | 49.69% | 5.29% | 173 | 420 | 28.44%, +252 | 13.02%, +668 | 5.73%, +1646 | 2.10%, +4651 | -8.19% | -6.21% | Neutral | 13.71% | 6.42652 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
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